Today: AA 5488 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet today AA 5488 MSP 05:45 → PHL 09:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 595 MSP 12:22 → PHL 15:57 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5488 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSP 05:45	PHL 09:27	8%	5%	3.1%	88%
AA 1452 American	MSP 06:07	PHL 09:47	8%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 2688 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:10	PHL 10:44	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2703 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:25	PHL 23:56	13%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 2679 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:09	PHL 14:43	14%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 2594 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:25	PHL 18:04	17%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 5455 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSP 16:17	PHL 20:03	19%	8%	1.3%	81%
AA 5658 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSP 13:08	PHL 16:50	24%	16%	3.0%	75%
AA 2157 American Flight history →	MSP 16:14	PHL 19:58	25%	9%	1.2%	67%
AA 595 American	MSP 12:22	PHL 15:57	25%	7%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON