Today: DL 2208 at 09:28 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–23%.

Safest bet today DL 2208 MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest DL 2297 MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2208 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:28	PHX 10:43	10%	3%	0.1%	77%
DL 2274 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:32	PHX 12:46	12%	4%	0.1%	81%
DL 2284 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:54	PHX 16:09	16%	4%	0.1%	82%
AA 408 American Flight history →	MSP 14:28	PHX 15:41	17%	6%	0.2%	92%
AA 1750 American Flight history →	MSP 14:47	PHX 16:03	17%	6%	0.2%	79%
DL 2297 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:48	PHX 20:06	23%	7%	0.1%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON