Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:44 am at Minneapolis); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: DL 4971 at 13:38 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet today DL 4971 MSP 13:38 → PIT 16:41 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest OO 4003 MSP 19:46 → PIT 22:52 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 4971 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 13:38	PIT 16:41	11%	3%	0.2%	73%
9E 4947 Endeavor	MSP 15:47	PIT 18:49	14%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 3075 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:05	PIT 23:10	17%	6%	0.1%	67%
DL 3709 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 15:25	PIT 18:40	17%	7%	0.2%	74%
OO 4003 SkyWest	MSP 19:46	PIT 22:52	22%	8%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON