tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:24 am at Minneapolis); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2699 Delta Flight history → MSP 14:20 RDU 17:51 14% 4% 0.1% 79%
DL 2932 Delta Flight history → MSP 20:25 RDU 23:59 18% 4% 0.2% 78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MSP 16:03 → ORD 17:59AA 4727 · flown by Republic 2h 23m Chicago ORD 20:22 → RDU 23:42AA 4615 · flown by Republic 6h 39m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:31 → ORD 12:16AA 4162 · flown by Envoy 3h 43m Chicago ORD 15:59 → RDU 19:23AA 4518 · flown by Republic 7h 52m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 10:25 → MDW 11:55WN 4345 3h 45m Chicago MDW 15:40 → RDU 18:42WN 2971 7h 17m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSP 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 3695 · flown by Republic 3h 04m Dulles IAD 18:54 → RDU 20:11UA 1322 6h 54m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476 2h 41m Detroit DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839 6h 10m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658 1h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 17:51 → RDU 23:57DL 402 8h 32m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSP 17:05 → IAD 20:43UA 3678 · flown by Republic 1h 42m Dulles IAD 22:25 → RDU 23:44UA 2382 5h 39m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → MSP 12:05 → IAH 15:00UA 1795 3h 08m Houston IAH 18:08 → RDU 21:59UA 2498 8h 54m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 56m Atlanta ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097 5h 09m 72% 54%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 48m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 4h 48m 65% 51%
DeltaDetails → MSP 15:15 → BOS 19:11DL 2591 54m Boston BOS 20:05 → RDU 22:15DL 817 6h 00m 72% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON