Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:47 pm at Minneapolis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 20:20, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Nonstops today


DL 2560 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:20	RNO 19:58	20%	5%	0.2%	77%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	3h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607	7h 34m	99%	84%
United Details →	MSP 15:20 → SFO 17:32UA 1367	3h 38m San Francisco	SFO 21:10 → RNO 22:29UA 5983 · flown by SkyWest	9h 09m	99%	68%
United Details →	MSP 17:13 → SFO 19:18UA 552	3h 27m San Francisco	SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757	8h 45m	94%	68%
Southwest Details →	MSP 13:50 → DEN 14:55WN 2967	2h 08m Denver	DEN 17:03 → RNO 18:23WN 669	6h 33m	99%	64%
United Details →	MSP 16:51 → DEN 18:17UA 2272	2h 43m Denver	DEN 21:00 → RNO 22:26UA 2852	7h 35m	95%	64%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:59 → LAX 20:51DL 2122	1h 08m Los Angeles	LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28DL 3929 · flown by SkyWest	6h 29m	79%	58%
American Details →	MSP 19:02 → DFW 21:25AA 2406	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:32 → RNO 23:58AA 1273	6h 56m	75%	46%
American Details →	MSP 14:55 → PHX 15:49AA 408	59m Phoenix	PHX 16:48 → RNO 18:44AA 3113	5h 49m	80%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON