Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:39 pm at Minneapolis); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 17:40, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Fort Myers on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 2268 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:29	RSW 23:52	17%	4%	0.6%	74%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSP 17:40 → STL 19:10WN 2974	1h 15m St Louis	STL 20:25 → RSW 00:03 +1WN 4122	5h 23m	85%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MSP 17:40 → STL 19:10WN 2974	50m St Louis	STL 20:00 → RSW 23:30WN 4831	4h 50m	70%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON