Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2125 MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 2145 MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:36 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2125 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:38	SAN 13:24	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 2121 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:51	SAN 10:38	14%	3%	0.5%	82%
DL 2146 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:47	SAN 23:30	18%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 2145 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:50	SAN 20:36	20%	4%	0.7%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	50m Denver	DEN 07:43 → SAN 09:05UA 2309	5h 20m	89%	74%
American Details →	MSP 14:47 → PHX 16:03AA 1750	1h 03m Phoenix	PHX 17:06 → SAN 18:18AA 2466	5h 31m	80%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON