Today: DL 2667 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Safest bet today DL 2667 MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 2580 MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2667 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:00	SAT 11:49	11%	3%	0.1%	81%
DL 2773 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:35	SAT 21:26	21%	5%	0.7%	72%
DL 2580 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:20	SAT 17:11	21%	6%	0.1%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON