Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2078 MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time Riskiest OO 4801 MSP 07:18 → SFO 09:50 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2078 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:24	SFO 11:32	11%	3%	0.6%	59%
DL 2074 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:00	SFO 13:09	12%	3%	0.6%	70%
DL 2089 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:40	SFO 23:46	13%	4%	0.7%	61%
UA 1808 United Flight history →	MSP 07:00	SFO 09:12	14%	4%	0.2%	97%worse than usual
DL 756 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:07	SFO 17:12	14%	5%	0.6%	74%
UA 552 United Flight history →	MSP 17:13	SFO 19:18	14%	4%	0.5%	71%
UA 1367 United Flight history →	MSP 15:20	SFO 17:32	15%	4%	0.5%	57%
DL 2809 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:50	SFO 20:57	16%	5%	0.7%	65%
OO 4801 SkyWest	MSP 07:18	SFO 09:50	16%	4%	0.4%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	5h 53m	93%	77%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 00m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	5h 59m	91%	73%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	51m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	5h 43m	88%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON