Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day


DL 2383 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	SJC 12:01	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2087 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:30	SJC 20:35	14%	4%	0.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSP 05:50 → DEN 06:55WN 1525	1h 35m Denver	DEN 08:30 → SJC 10:07WN 1775	6h 17m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	MSP 05:00 → MDW 06:30WN 2520	3h 20m Chicago	MDW 09:50 → SJC 12:14WN 2990	9h 14m	100%	90%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 09:36 → SJC 12:13UA 307	8h 13m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:06 → LAX 09:00DL 2110	3h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	9h 06m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 25m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	3h 22m Los Angeles	LAX 14:32 → SJC 15:46DL 3822 · flown by SkyWest	8h 26m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	3h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest	7h 57m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	2h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272	7h 26m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	46m Seattle	SEA 11:45 → SJC 14:15DL 3789 · flown by SkyWest	7h 10m	68%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON