Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2628 MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2607 MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2628 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:10	SLC 09:59	7%	1%	0.1%	93%
DL 2651 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:29	SLC 14:19	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2658 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:25	SLC 16:16	10%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 1051 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:20	SLC 22:13	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2607 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:13	SLC 20:07	12%	3%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON