Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3082 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15%.

Safest bet that day WN 3082 MSP 08:02 → STL 09:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4167 MSP 13:36 → STL 15:13 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3082 Southwest	MSP 08:02	STL 09:40	5%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 2973 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 07:45	STL 09:15	6%	1%	0.1%	92%
DL 3188 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:55	STL 10:28	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 1289 Delta	MSP 09:04	STL 10:42	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1224 Delta	MSP 15:10	STL 16:48	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3185 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:15	STL 16:46	13%	3%	0.6%	78%
OO 3811 SkyWest	MSP 13:28	STL 15:10	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3083 Southwest	MSP 17:35	STL 19:13	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2974 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 17:40	STL 19:10	15%	3%	0.5%	54%
DL 1609 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:50	STL 23:22	15%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 4167 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 13:36	STL 15:13	18%	5%	0.6%	71%
DL 5286 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 07:00	STL 08:42	28%	14%	0.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON