Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:21 pm at Minneapolis); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 16:03, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Traverse City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MSP 16:03 → ORD 17:59AA 4727 · flown by Republic	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → TVC 00:01 +1AA 3910 · flown by Envoy	6h 58m	100%	84%
United Details →	MSP 17:13 → ORD 19:00UA 658	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic	5h 41m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	4h 00m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 53m	100%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSP 18:41 → ORD 20:30UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest	55m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic	4h 13m	61%	54%
United Details →	MSP 19:02 → ORD 20:34UA 1237	51m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:35UA 2071	3h 33m	61%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON