Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:26 am at Minneapolis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today


DL 5527 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 19:45	TYS 23:01	28%	13%	1.1%	72%
DL 5335 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 13:28	TYS 16:45	29%	15%	0.8%	71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MSP 10:31 → ORD 12:16AA 4162 · flown by Envoy	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 15:13 → TYS 18:02AA 3783 · flown by Envoy	6h 31m	99%	88%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	1h 11m Charlotte	CLT 11:11 → TYS 12:34AA 5953 · flown by Piedmont	5h 15m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743	4h 50m	96%	83%
Southwest Details →	MSP 11:35 → DEN 12:35WN 4346	1h 45m Denver	DEN 14:20 → TYS 19:10WN 1768	6h 35m	100%	82%
American Details →	MSP 14:02 → ORD 15:45AA 3719 · flown by Envoy	3h 24m Chicago	ORD 19:09 → TYS 21:58AA 5001 · flown by SkyWest	6h 56m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → TYS 18:44DL 3042	7h 12m	99%	80%
Southwest Details →	MSP 07:05 → BNA 09:10WN 1528	1h 01m Nashville	BNA 10:11 → TYS 12:12WN 747	4h 07m	95%	80%
United Details →	MSP 09:47 → ORD 11:29UA 1929	2h 31m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → TYS 17:00UA 5823 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSP 13:08 → PHL 16:50AA 5658 · flown by PSA	58m Philadelphia	PHL 17:48 → TYS 20:00AA 5066 · flown by PSA	5h 52m	75%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON