Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 558 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 558 MSY 06:55 → BNA 08:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4344 MSY 18:15 → BNA 19:45 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 558 Southwest	MSY 06:55	BNA 08:36	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3090 Southwest	MSY 08:00	BNA 09:40	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2981 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 07:45	BNA 09:20	11%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 2761 Southwest	MSY 10:41	BNA 12:22	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2407 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 10:15	BNA 11:50	18%	3%	0.7%	77%
WN 540 Southwest	MSY 12:56	BNA 14:36	23%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3093 Southwest	MSY 14:31	BNA 16:11	28%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2983 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 15:00	BNA 16:35	28%	5%	0.7%	35%
WN 4344 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 18:15	BNA 19:45	33%	7%	0.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON