Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1453 at 14:57 is the safest bet, 32% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–44%.

Safest bet that day DL 1453 MSY 14:57 → BOS 19:04 · 32% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 400 MSY 17:58 → BOS 22:13 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1453 Delta	MSY 14:57	BOS 19:04	32%	8%	0.8%	no record
DL 1328 Delta Flight history →	MSY 14:44	BOS 19:13	33%	8%	0.8%	58%
B6 400 JetBlue Flight history →	MSY 17:58	BOS 22:13	44%	16%	0.9%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON