Today: WN 3789 at 11:40 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet today WN 3789 MSY 11:40 → BWI 15:15 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest WN 2986 MSY 17:55 → BWI 21:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3789 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 11:40	BWI 15:15	17%	4%	0.2%	74%
WN 2144 Southwest	MSY 13:55	BWI 17:42	24%	6%	0.3%	no record
WN 3097 Southwest	MSY 18:00	BWI 21:47	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2986 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 17:55	BWI 21:30	31%	7%	0.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON