Today: AA 1266 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–42%.

Safest bet today AA 1266 MSY 06:53 → CLT 10:00 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2203 MSY 18:26 → CLT 21:33 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 1266 American Flight history →	MSY 06:53	CLT 10:00	12%	4%	0.6%	95%
AA 2287 American Flight history →	MSY 08:58	CLT 11:55	18%	5%	0.5%	91%
AA 2200 American Flight history →	MSY 09:27	CLT 12:28	22%	6%	0.5%	87%
AA 2170 American Flight history →	MSY 13:50	CLT 16:59	24%	6%	0.5%	53%
AA 1769 American	MSY 13:00	CLT 15:53	26%	7%	0.4%	no record
AA 2615 American Flight history →	MSY 18:41	CLT 21:37	34%	7%	1.3%	75%
AA 2174 American Flight history →	MSY 16:17	CLT 19:26	35%	6%	0.5%	68%
AA 2203 American Flight history →	MSY 18:26	CLT 21:33	42%	9%	0.6%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON