Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3098 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3098 MSY 05:11 → DAL 06:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4677 MSY 18:30 → DAL 20:05 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3098 Southwest	MSY 05:11	DAL 06:45	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 2964 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 05:20	DAL 06:45	6%	2%	0.9%	82%
WN 3664 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 06:30	DAL 07:55	6%	2%	0.9%	88%
WN 3100 Southwest	MSY 07:06	DAL 08:40	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 4640 Southwest	MSY 08:11	DAL 09:43	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 1346 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 11:05	DAL 12:30	19%	4%	0.8%	72%
WN 4419 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 14:30	DAL 16:00	25%	6%	0.8%	68%
WN 4502 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 21:30	DAL 22:55	27%	8%	0.8%	45%
WN 4677 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 18:30	DAL 20:05	31%	8%	0.9%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON