Today: WN 3105 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–41%.

Safest bet today WN 3105 MSY 05:50 → DEN 07:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1743 MSY 17:20 → DEN 19:25 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3105 Southwest	MSY 05:50	DEN 07:40	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2991 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 05:10	DEN 06:55	5%	1%	0.2%	97%
UA 1376 United Flight history →	MSY 08:04	DEN 10:05	12%	4%	0.3%	86%
WN 3825 Southwest	MSY 08:45	DEN 10:35	16%	3%	0.2%	no record
F9 4561 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 10:44	DEN 12:47	20%	10%	1.1%	74%
UA 785 United	MSY 14:30	DEN 16:41	20%	6%	0.3%	no record
UA 2325 United Flight history →	MSY 14:35	DEN 16:34	21%	6%	0.3%	78%
WN 2992 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 10:45	DEN 12:25	22%	4%	0.2%	70%
WN 4184 Southwest	MSY 13:50	DEN 15:41	31%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 2216 United Flight history →	MSY 17:56	DEN 19:48	31%	6%	0.8%	84%worse than usual
WN 3108 Southwest	MSY 17:25	DEN 19:16	39%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1743 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 17:20	DEN 19:25	41%	6%	0.7%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON