Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: B6 1822 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30%.

Safest bet that day B6 1822 MSY 07:45 → FLL 10:42 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 2722 MSY 13:40 → FLL 16:46 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1822 JetBlue Flight history →	MSY 07:45	FLL 10:42	21%	8%	0.8%	84%
WN 1092 Southwest	MSY 18:25	FLL 21:27	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 460 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 16:05	FLL 19:05	30%	8%	0.7%	42%
B6 2722 JetBlue Flight history →	MSY 13:40	FLL 16:46	31%	14%	1.0%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON