Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:17 am at New Orleans)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: UA 1392 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops today


UA 1392 United Flight history →	MSY 08:00	IAD 11:33	10%	5%	0.6%	93%
UA 2497 United Flight history →	MSY 12:17	IAD 15:50	21%	8%	0.5%	92%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSY 06:30 → ORD 09:12UA 2420	1h 55m Chicago	ORD 11:07 → IAD 14:12UA 1869	6h 42m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444	5h 17m	97%	80%
American Details →	MSY 05:53 → CLT 08:49AA 424	2h 16m Charlotte	CLT 11:05 → IAD 12:38AA 5220 · flown by PSA	5h 45m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	6h 33m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	MSY 17:02 → ATL 19:45DL 924	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 39m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	6h 41m	99%	77%
United Details →	MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124	3h 54m Houston	IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366	8h 30m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902	6h 56m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSY 19:12 → ATL 21:54DL 3132	59m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	4h 29m	64%	51%
American Details →	MSY 18:42 → CLT 21:38AA 2615	1h 07m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242	4h 28m	67%	47%
American Details →	MSY 07:42 → DFW 09:35AA 1470	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → IAD 14:30AA 524	5h 48m	57%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON