Today: DL 1322 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–31%.

Safest bet today DL 1322 MSY 10:20 → JFK 14:31 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 1387 MSY 18:58 → JFK 22:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1322 Delta Flight history →	MSY 10:20	JFK 14:31	14%	4%	0.6%	88%
B6 176 JetBlue Flight history →	MSY 10:15	JFK 14:14	16%	8%	0.8%	82%
DL 1394 Delta Flight history →	MSY 19:50	JFK 23:59	18%	5%	1.3%	59%
DL 1387 Delta Flight history →	MSY 18:58	JFK 22:50	31%	8%	0.7%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON