Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:27 pm at New Orleans); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: MX 1533 at 20:05 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–39%.

Safest bet today MX 1533 MSY 20:05 → LAS 21:55 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1707 MSY 20:55 → LAS 22:54 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


MX 1533 Breeze	MSY 20:05	LAS 21:55	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3118 Southwest	MSY 19:35	LAS 21:35	31%	6%	0.3%	no record
WN 3003 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 19:55	LAS 21:30	31%	6%	0.3%	36%
WN 4701 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 14:00	LAS 15:35	35%	7%	0.2%	72%
F9 1707 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 20:55	LAS 22:54	39%	20%	1.4%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON