tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:41 am at New Orleans); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3009 Southwest Flight history → MSY 12:55 MCI 14:55 27% 6% 0.4% 72%
WN 4801 Southwest MSY 18:00 MCI 20:07 34% 8% 0.9% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:10 → DEN 06:55WN 2991 1h 20m Denver DEN 08:15 → MCI 11:00WN 1362 5h 50m 97% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:40 → MDW 08:00WN 498 1h 50m Chicago MDW 09:50 → MCI 11:24WN 2913 5h 44m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 46m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 7h 15m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → MSY 09:58 → MIA 12:58AA 2168 1h 50m Miami MIA 14:48 → MCI 17:23AA 3939 · flown by Envoy 7h 25m 97% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:20 → DAL 06:45WN 2964 1h 50m Dallas DAL 08:35 → MCI 10:10WN 1343 4h 50m 98% 83%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:00 → MCO 07:50WN 4663 1h 15m Orlando MCO 09:05 → MCI 10:55WN 989 5h 55m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744 1h 28m Houston IAH 08:02 → MCI 10:20UA 2009 5h 05m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSY 06:30 → ORD 09:12UA 2420 3h 28m Chicago ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561 7h 50m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MSY 19:10 → STL 21:00WN 3021 50m St Louis STL 21:50 → MCI 23:07WN 4964 3h 57m 51% 43%
UnitedDetails → MSY 17:35 → ORD 20:28UA 3597 · flown by Republic 57m Chicago ORD 21:25 → MCI 23:17UA 4723 · flown by SkyWest 5h 42m 53% 41%
AmericanDetails → MSY 12:22 → DFW 14:10AA 2885 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:02 → MCI 16:46AA 3030 4h 24m 55% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON