Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3242 at 09:00, 18%.

Safest bet today WN 3242 MSY 09:00 → MCO 11:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time Riskiest WN 4311 MSY 18:40 → MCO 21:30 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Weather 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3242 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 09:00	MCO 11:50	18%	4%	0.3%	60%
WN 3147 Southwest	MSY 10:30	MCO 13:25	20%	5%	0.3%	no record
WN 2051 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 12:35	MCO 15:30	31%	10%	0.3%	68%
WN 3128 Southwest	MSY 21:55	MCO 00:45	39%	14%	1.2%	no record
F9 3554 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 16:45	MCO 19:46	46%	23%	2.2%	67%worse than usual
WN 2747 Southwest	MSY 19:05	MCO 21:55	46%	16%	1.2%	no record
WN 3126 Southwest	MSY 16:25	MCO 19:20	47%	15%	0.6%	no record
F9 1432 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 19:54	MCO 23:00	48%	22%	2.2%	81%worse than usual
WN 4311 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 18:40	MCO 21:30	51%	18%	1.2%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON