Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 867 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 867 MSY 05:52 → MIA 09:04 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2201 MSY 18:57 → MIA 21:59 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 867 American Flight history →	MSY 05:52	MIA 09:04	15%	5%	2.7%	92%
AA 386 American Flight history →	MSY 06:05	MIA 09:11	17%	5%	2.7%	88%
MQ 3553 Envoy	MSY 10:01	MIA 13:33	22%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 1591 American Flight history →	MSY 08:00	MIA 11:04	27%	7%	2.1%	82%
AA 2168 American Flight history →	MSY 09:58	MIA 12:58	30%	9%	2.2%	83%worse than usual
AA 2201 American Flight history →	MSY 18:57	MIA 21:59	43%	10%	2.1%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON