Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2341 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2341 MSY 06:14 → ORD 08:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5375 MSY 17:39 → ORD 20:32 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2341 American	MSY 06:14	ORD 08:56	10%	5%	1.4%	no record
UA 2420 United Flight history →	MSY 06:30	ORD 09:12	11%	3%	0.9%	86%
AA 3722 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSY 07:43	ORD 10:30	11%	3%	1.0%	94%
AA 4748 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSY 12:34	ORD 15:20	12%	4%	1.2%	88%
UA 2844 United	MSY 06:50	ORD 09:19	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
YX 4464 Republic	MSY 11:07	ORD 13:48	13%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 1677 United Flight history →	MSY 10:27	ORD 13:09	16%	6%	0.9%	83%
AA 2529 American	MSY 08:13	ORD 10:50	17%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 2179 United Flight history →	MSY 14:01	ORD 16:46	25%	6%	0.9%	76%
UA 1301 United Flight history →	MSY 14:17	ORD 16:58	25%	6%	0.9%	66%
UA 3597 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSY 17:35	ORD 20:28	28%	5%	1.3%	90%worse than usual
AA 2198 American Flight history →	MSY 17:27	ORD 20:29	39%	9%	1.0%	43%
OO 5375 SkyWest	MSY 17:39	ORD 20:32	41%	10%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON