Today: WN 1864 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–41%.

Safest bet today WN 1864 MSY 06:13 → PHX 07:08 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3017 MSY 14:40 → PHX 15:55 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1864 Southwest	MSY 06:13	PHX 07:08	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 3135 Southwest	MSY 20:25	PHX 21:49	39%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 2191 American Flight history →	MSY 18:14	PHX 19:29	41%	11%	0.9%	67%
AA 1924 American	MSY 18:24	PHX 19:59	41%	11%	1.0%	no record
WN 3017 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 14:40	PHX 15:55	43%	14%	0.2%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON