tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:58 am at New Orleans); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:30, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 43% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 569 Alaska Flight history → MSY 17:19 SEA 20:25 30% 7% 0.6% 72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505 9h 28m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:20 → JFK 14:31DL 1322 2h 25m New York JFK 16:56 → SEA 20:28DL 740 12h 08m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790 1h 58m Detroit DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944 9h 23m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSY 10:27 → ORD 13:09UA 1677 3h 11m Chicago ORD 16:20 → SEA 19:06UA 1801 10h 39m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 17:15 → MDW 19:30WN 2875 2h 30m Chicago MDW 22:00 → SEA 00:35 +1WN 4144 9h 20m 99% 72%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 11:45 → MDW 14:00WN 4664 3h 15m Chicago MDW 17:15 → SEA 19:45WN 2890 10h 00m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:17 → ORD 16:58UA 1301 3h 07m Chicago ORD 20:05 → SEA 22:56UA 2820 10h 39m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → MSY 17:20 → LAX 19:18DL 2096 1h 57m Los Angeles LAX 21:15 → SEA 00:03 +1DL 2616 8h 43m 91% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSY 19:59 → DFW 21:47AA 2158 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487 6h 58m 52% 30%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 19:55 → LAS 21:30WN 3003 47m Las Vegas LAS 22:17 → SEA 00:50 +1WN 2409 6h 55m 51% 30%
UnitedDetails → MSY 17:35 → IAH 19:02UA 2341 47m Houston IAH 19:49 → SEA 22:14UA 2341 6h 39m 43% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON