tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:07 am at New Orleans)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 10:45, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 37% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 736 Delta Flight history → MSY 13:30 SLC 16:01 20% 5% 0.2% 92%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840 8h 09m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSY 06:30 → ORD 09:12UA 2420 3h 33m Chicago ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955 9h 52m 98% 81%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 06:30 → DAL 07:55WN 3664 2h 15m Dallas DAL 10:10 → SLC 11:59WN 1426 6h 29m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MSY 07:43 → ORD 10:30AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 3h 03m Chicago ORD 13:33 → SLC 16:03AA 2780 9h 20m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 10:45 → DEN 12:25WN 2992 1h 55m Denver DEN 14:20 → SLC 15:52WN 2330 6h 07m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790 2h 52m Detroit DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765 9h 15m 98% 79%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 07:45 → BNA 09:20WN 2981 3h 50m Nashville BNA 13:10 → SLC 15:38WN 4634 8h 53m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:17 → ORD 16:58UA 1301 3h 12m Chicago ORD 20:10 → SLC 22:48UA 1710 9h 31m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSY 17:27 → ORD 20:29AA 2198 48m Chicago ORD 21:17 → SLC 23:43AA 2545 7h 16m 53% 38%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 19:55 → LAS 21:30WN 3003 47m Las Vegas LAS 22:17 → SLC 00:42 +1WN 2425 5h 47m 53% 37%
AmericanDetails → MSY 18:14 → PHX 19:29AA 2191 48m Phoenix PHX 20:17 → SLC 23:01AA 4968 · flown by SkyWest 5h 47m 37% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON