Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3142 at 12:05, 24%.

Safest bet today WN 3142 MSY 12:05 → TPA 14:56 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3023 MSY 17:45 → TPA 20:20 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3142 Southwest	MSY 12:05	TPA 14:56	24%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 3143 Southwest	MSY 21:35	TPA 00:22	33%	14%	0.9%	no record
WN 3023 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 17:45	TPA 20:20	50%	12%	0.5%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON