Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5662 at 11:42, 16%.

Safest bet that day DL 5662 MVY 11:42 → LGA 12:58 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 5822 MVY 15:43 → LGA 16:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Weather 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5662 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MVY 11:42	LGA 12:58	16%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 4570 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MVY 13:51	LGA 15:11	22%	6%	0.8%	85%
DL 5822 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MVY 15:43	LGA 16:59	28%	6%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON