Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:02 am at Martha's Vineyard)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 4602 at 10:41, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 4602 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MVY 10:41	PHL 12:08	13%	4%	0.3%	70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


JetBlue Details →	MVY 10:58 → BOS 11:45B6 1225	1h 38m Boston	BOS 13:23 → PHL 15:07B6 1859	4h 09m	84%	60%
American Details →	MVY 12:22 → DCA 13:59AA 4574 · flown by Republic	3h 15m Washington	DCA 17:14 → PHL 18:17AA 5248 · flown by PSA	5h 55m	96%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON