Today: WN 878 at 10:25 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–21%.

Safest bet today WN 878 MYR 10:25 → BNA 11:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1101 MYR 15:55 → BNA 16:43 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 878 Southwest	MYR 10:25	BNA 11:12	10%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 2997 Southwest Flight history →	MYR 10:35	BNA 11:10	12%	2%	0.3%	82%
WN 3025 Southwest Flight history →	MYR 21:10	BNA 21:45	13%	6%	0.7%	71%
WN 1101 Southwest	MYR 15:55	BNA 16:43	21%	4%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON