Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:47 pm at Myrtle Beach)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 19:59, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 19:59 → ATL 21:31DL 1093	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	5h 21m	81%	54%
American Details →	MYR 19:07 → DCA 20:41AA 3750 · flown by Envoy	1h 49m Washington	DCA 22:30 → BOS 23:59AA 4051 · flown by Envoy	4h 52m	85%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MYR 19:35 → PHL 20:51AA 6039 · flown by Piedmont	1h 08m Philadelphia	PHL 21:59 → BOS 23:18AA 834	3h 43m	69%	18%
Southwest Details →	MYR 20:10 → BWI 21:40WN 3027	50m Baltimore	BWI 22:30 → BOS 23:59WN 2091	3h 49m	69%	14%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON