Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 361 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 361 MYR 06:15 → BWI 07:52 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3027 MYR 20:10 → BWI 21:40 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 361 Southwest	MYR 06:15	BWI 07:52	4%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 3026 Southwest Flight history →	MYR 07:50	BWI 09:10	8%	3%	1.2%	98%
WN 664 Southwest	MYR 13:25	BWI 15:03	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 1695 Southwest Flight history →	MYR 12:00	BWI 13:30	12%	3%	1.2%	91%
WN 3027 Southwest Flight history →	MYR 20:10	BWI 21:40	18%	6%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON