tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:03 pm at Myrtle Beach)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 12:52, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MYR 12:52 → ORD 14:25AA 3733 · flown by Envoy 3h 18m Chicago ORD 17:43 → CLE 20:16AA 3466 · flown by Envoy 7h 24m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MYR 15:15 → ORD 16:49UA 2467 3h 10m Chicago ORD 19:59 → CLE 22:29UA 1641 7h 14m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → MYR 17:30 → MSP 19:29DL 2327 1h 22m Minneapolis MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:44DL 1392 6h 14m 91% 75%
DeltaDetails → MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 18:53 → CLE 20:41DL 2150 6h 50m 94% 68%
AmericanDetails → MYR 13:27 → PHL 15:14AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont 2h 01m Philadelphia PHL 17:15 → CLE 19:06AA 5862 · flown by Piedmont 5h 39m 89% 65%
AmericanDetails → MYR 18:10 → CLT 19:24AA 2212 3h 26m Charlotte CLT 22:50 → CLE 00:29 +1AA 2260 6h 19m 93% 65%
SouthwestDetails → MYR 20:10 → BWI 21:40WN 3027 1h 15m Baltimore BWI 22:55 → CLE 00:20 +1WN 909 4h 10m 87% 65%
DeltaDetails → MYR 16:16 → ATL 17:39DL 2467 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 19:55 → CLE 21:45DL 1339 5h 29m 86% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MYR 15:15 → ORD 16:49UA 2467 56m Chicago ORD 17:45 → CLE 20:13UA 2652 4h 58m 75% 60%
AmericanDetails → MYR 20:44 → CLT 21:55AA 2886 55m Charlotte CLT 22:50 → CLE 00:29 +1AA 2260 3h 45m 67% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON