Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3296 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3296 MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2212 MYR 18:10 → CLT 19:24 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3296 American Flight history →	MYR 06:51	CLT 07:58	15%	6%	2.1%	90%
AA 5555 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MYR 09:06	CLT 10:25	15%	5%	2.1%	94%
OH 5529 PSA	MYR 11:47	CLT 12:56	16%	5%	1.8%	no record
OH 5398 PSA	MYR 16:16	CLT 17:25	20%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 5315 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MYR 13:01	CLT 14:14	20%	5%	1.3%	82%
AA 2431 American Flight history →	MYR 09:16	CLT 10:21	21%	6%	1.9%	96%worse than usual
AA 2214 American Flight history →	MYR 16:16	CLT 17:32	24%	6%	1.3%	66%
AA 2886 American Flight history →	MYR 20:44	CLT 21:55	24%	6%	1.3%	82%
AA 2495 American	MYR 14:13	CLT 15:19	25%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 2212 American Flight history →	MYR 18:10	CLT 19:24	31%	6%	1.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON