Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:26 pm at Myrtle Beach)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: G4 399 at 21:30, 40%.

Nonstops today


G4 399 Allegiant Flight history →	MYR 21:30	CVG 23:07	40%	14%	1.0%	72%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 19:59 → ATL 21:31DL 1093	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	4h 40m	83%	64%
Southwest Details →	MYR 20:10 → BWI 21:40WN 3027	1h 05m Baltimore	BWI 22:45 → CVG 00:30 +1WN 4435	4h 20m	77%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MYR 17:30 → MSP 19:29DL 2327	51m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	5h 41m	69%	57%
American Details →	MYR 16:43 → DFW 18:50AA 2213	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → CVG 23:22AA 799	6h 39m	70%	38%
American Details →	MYR 18:10 → CLT 19:24AA 2212	59m Charlotte	CLT 20:23 → CVG 21:46AA 633	3h 36m	52%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON