Today: YX 4469 at 12:03 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–36%.

Safest bet today YX 4469 MYR 12:03 → DCA 13:48 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3750 MYR 19:07 → DCA 20:41 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4469 Republic	MYR 12:03	DCA 13:48	15%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 5300 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MYR 11:52	DCA 13:34	30%	11%	1.5%	83%worse than usual
MQ 4169 Envoy	MYR 20:07	DCA 21:41	35%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 3750 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MYR 19:07	DCA 20:41	36%	10%	0.8%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON