Today: AA 4024 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet today AA 4024 MYR 06:33 → DFW 08:45 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2213 MYR 16:43 → DFW 18:50 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4024 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MYR 06:33	DFW 08:45	11%	6%	1.2%	90%
OH 5405 PSA	MYR 06:35	DFW 08:42	11%	7%	1.2%	no record
OH 5121 PSA	MYR 17:01	DFW 19:09	18%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 2213 American Flight history →	MYR 16:43	DFW 18:50	27%	11%	1.0%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	56m Atlanta	ATL 16:10 → DFW 17:27DL 374	4h 36m	78%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON