Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:20 am at Myrtle Beach)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 1145 at 11:34, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1145 Delta Flight history →	MYR 11:34	DTW 13:31	13%	4%	0.6%	86%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MYR 12:52 → ORD 14:25AA 3733 · flown by Envoy	3h 46m Chicago	ORD 18:11 → DTW 20:46AA 3500 · flown by Envoy	7h 54m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MYR 17:30 → MSP 19:29DL 2327	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 21:02 → DTW 23:48DL 8805	6h 18m	96%	77%
United Details →	MYR 15:15 → ORD 16:49UA 2467	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 19:47 → DTW 22:19UA 2426	7h 04m	95%	71%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	5h 45m	96%	69%
American Details →	MYR 18:10 → CLT 19:24AA 2212	3h 27m Charlotte	CLT 22:51 → DTW 00:41 +1AA 370	6h 31m	93%	67%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	6h 22m	92%	66%
Delta Details →	MYR 19:59 → ATL 21:31DL 1093	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	5h 00m	83%	66%
American Details →	MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:14AA 5315 · flown by PSA	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 17:22 → DTW 19:05AA 1443	6h 04m	96%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MYR 20:44 → CLT 21:55AA 2886	56m Charlotte	CLT 22:51 → DTW 00:41 +1AA 370	3h 57m	66%	48%
American Details →	MYR 16:43 → DFW 18:50AA 2213	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:52 → DTW 23:28AA 313	6h 45m	74%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON