Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:48 pm at Myrtle Beach); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 4367 at 19:15, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4367 Southwest Flight history →	MYR 19:15	MDW 20:20	19%	3%	0.2%	56%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MYR 14:00 → STL 15:05WN 262	3h 09m St Louis	STL 18:14 → MDW 19:29WN 3357	6h 29m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MYR 16:16 → ATL 17:39DL 2467	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 59m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MYR 21:10 → BNA 21:45WN 3025	50m Nashville	BNA 22:35 → MDW 00:10 +1WN 578	4h 00m	67%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON