Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3733 MYR 12:52 → ORD 14:25 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 2467 MYR 15:15 → ORD 16:49 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3733 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MYR 12:52	ORD 14:25	12%	3%	1.6%	84%
YX 3402 Republic	MYR 17:06	ORD 18:41	15%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2467 United Flight history →	MYR 15:15	ORD 16:49	20%	6%	1.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON