Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:01 pm at Myrtle Beach); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5896 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	MYR 15:19	PHL 17:26	26%	11%	2.2%	85%worse than usual
AA 6039 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	MYR 19:25	PHL 21:20	28%	10%	2.4%	91%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 17:30 → MSP 19:29DL 2327	56m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	6h 26m	85%	69%
Delta Details →	MYR 16:16 → ATL 17:39DL 2467	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:27DL 1174	6h 11m	91%	68%
American Details →	MYR 18:10 → CLT 19:24AA 2212	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189	6h 12m	91%	63%
Delta Details →	MYR 19:59 → ATL 21:31DL 1093	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	5h 00m	84%	60%
United Details →	MYR 15:15 → ORD 16:49UA 2467	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776	6h 04m	82%	59%
American Details →	MYR 20:06 → CLT 21:10AA 1417	1h 15m Charlotte	CLT 22:25 → PHL 00:10 +1AA 1827	4h 04m	78%	53%
American Details →	MYR 16:43 → DFW 18:50AA 2213	1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542	7h 52m	82%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	51m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	4h 21m	68%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON