Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:12 am at Myrtle Beach)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 262 at 14:00, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 262 Southwest Flight history →	MYR 14:00	STL 15:05	15%	4%	0.4%	54%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 17:30 → MSP 19:29DL 2327	2h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 21:50 → STL 23:22DL 1609	6h 52m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	3h 14m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	6h 50m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	MYR 12:00 → BWI 13:30WN 1695	2h 25m Baltimore	BWI 15:55 → STL 17:26WN 1171	6h 26m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MYR 19:59 → ATL 21:31DL 1093	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	4h 54m	87%	72%
United Details →	MYR 15:15 → ORD 16:49UA 2467	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → STL 21:04UA 1625	6h 49m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → STL 16:09DL 543	5h 27m	95%	70%
Southwest Details →	MYR 19:15 → MDW 20:20WN 4367	1h 44m Chicago	MDW 22:04 → STL 23:22WN 1687	5h 07m	88%	70%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:14 → STL 20:06DL 2833	7h 15m	95%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:09 → STL 14:48DL 2700	4h 06m	74%	53%
American Details →	MYR 20:44 → CLT 21:55AA 2886	1h 01m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459	4h 14m	74%	52%
American Details →	MYR 11:52 → DCA 13:34AA 5300 · flown by PSA	59m Washington	DCA 14:33 → STL 16:09AA 2030	5h 17m	69%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON