Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 34 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 76 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 76 JFK 06:00 → SFO 09:21 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1844 EWR 18:00 → SFO 21:28 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 76 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:21	6%	2%	1.0%	90%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SFO 10:15	7%	3%	0.7%	74%
DL 669 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	SFO 12:19	9%	3%	0.7%	74%
B6 115 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:15	10%	2%	0.7%	83%
UA 2115 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	SFO 09:09	11%	2%	0.7%	85%
AA 179 American Flight history →	JFK 07:58	SFO 11:19	11%	3%	0.8%	82%
DL 679 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:55	SFO 18:24	12%	5%	0.7%	75%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:15	SFO 14:33	12%	3%	0.7%	73%
AA 149 American Flight history →	JFK 10:29	SFO 13:54	13%	4%	0.8%	60%
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:06	14%	5%	0.6%	67%
DL 1732 Delta Flight history →	JFK 21:15	SFO 00:53	14%	6%	0.7%	64%
AS 227 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 09:30	SFO 12:52	14%	3%	0.7%	82%
AS 41 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SFO 14:50	15%	3%	0.7%	64%
UA 1960 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	SFO 09:59	15%	3%	0.7%	72%
B6 215 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:30	SFO 14:08	15%	5%	0.7%	78%
B6 15 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:00	SFO 11:20	15%	3%	0.7%	87%
UA 1777 United Flight history →	EWR 08:15	SFO 11:29	16%	5%	0.7%	72%
DL 667 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:00	SFO 22:40	16%	6%	0.7%	62%
AS 59 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 18:55	SFO 22:33	16%	6%	0.8%	53%
UA 1593 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	SFO 12:14	17%	5%	0.7%	50%
UA 648 United Flight history →	EWR 10:40	SFO 13:51	18%	5%	0.6%	72%
AA 15 American Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:05	18%	5%	0.8%	75%
AA 177 American Flight history →	JFK 21:26	SFO 00:59	18%	6%	1.2%	66%
UA 1343 United Flight history →	EWR 11:50	SFO 15:01	20%	6%	0.7%	68%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	EWR 13:30	SFO 16:28	22%	8%	0.7%	73%
UA 2080 United Flight history →	EWR 16:00	SFO 19:28	22%	9%	0.7%	62%
B6 515 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	SFO 00:38	22%	9%	0.8%	65%
UA 2004 United Flight history →	EWR 16:12	SFO 19:24	23%	9%	0.7%	78%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SFO 20:37	24%	9%	0.7%	62%
B6 415 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:45	SFO 19:11	25%	8%	0.7%	67%
B6 615 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:30	SFO 22:10	26%	7%	0.7%	68%
UA 2328 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	SFO 17:48	26%	10%	0.7%	68%
UA 1558 United Flight history →	EWR 19:20	SFO 22:59	26%	8%	0.8%	52%
UA 1844 United Flight history →	EWR 18:00	SFO 21:28	30%	8%	0.7%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	8h 46m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383	8h 46m	97%	89%
Southwest Details →	LGA 07:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2465	1h 15m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752	8h 05m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON