Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 41 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: UA 788 at 06:30, 5%.

Safest bet that day UA 788 EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1727 EWR 18:45 → MCO 21:42 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	5%	2%	1.8%	96%
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	7%	3%	1.9%	90%
B6 927 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:05	MCO 08:43	8%	3%	3.6%	90%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MCO 09:59	8%	3%	1.6%	84%
UA 411 United Flight history →	EWR 07:51	MCO 10:39	9%	3%	0.8%	98%
UA 2719 United Flight history →	EWR 07:47	MCO 10:34	9%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 3114 American Flight history →	LGA 07:30	MCO 10:22	10%	3%	1.2%	86%
AA 902 American	LGA 08:04	MCO 10:51	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
F9 1659 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 05:58	MCO 08:42	11%	3%	2.7%	83%
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:52	11%	4%	2.7%	89%
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 07:00	MCO 09:49	11%	3%	2.6%	75%
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	13%	4%	0.7%	76%
DL 2019 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:53	MCO 12:51	13%	3%	1.2%	78%
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:10	MCO 14:03	13%	5%	0.8%	87%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:27	MCO 14:17	14%	3%	1.2%	81%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	18%	5%	2.1%	80%
B6 383 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:55	MCO 14:03	19%	7%	1.2%	71%
B6 883 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:42	MCO 10:25	19%	5%	2.2%	75%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:55	20%	9%	1.2%	65%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 13:03	MCO 15:54	20%	6%	1.2%	81%
B6 183 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:15	MCO 11:07	20%	5%	1.8%	81%
F9 2511 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 11:30	MCO 14:26	22%	7%	1.9%	80%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:00	MCO 18:20	25%	13%	1.9%	76%
DL 1740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:59	MCO 23:19	25%	9%	2.1%	67%
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	MCO 23:32	27%	13%	1.6%	73%
B6 83 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:15	MCO 15:11	30%	11%	1.8%	69%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	MCO 19:56	30%	15%	1.6%	77%
UA 1213 United Flight history →	EWR 14:59	MCO 17:57	31%	15%	1.3%	74%
DL 2540 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCO 23:03	33%	16%	2.6%	59%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCO 18:52	33%	14%	2.3%	62%
UA 1932 United Flight history →	EWR 18:35	MCO 21:36	35%	19%	1.6%	56%
AA 2069 American Flight history →	LGA 14:57	MCO 17:52	37%	14%	2.1%	48%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:59	MCO 21:15	37%	16%	2.7%	68%
B6 399 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 14:29	MCO 17:28	39%	17%	1.9%	61%
B6 483 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:56	MCO 20:04	39%	16%	2.1%	60%
B6 283 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:55	MCO 22:09	41%	17%	2.7%	62%
B6 1083 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:00	MCO 00:07	42%	17%	2.6%	67%
B6 2583 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	MCO 23:08	46%	16%	2.3%	55%
B6 699 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 20:59	MCO 23:52	48%	25%	2.3%	41%
F9 2615 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 20:29	MCO 23:32	48%	27%	4.4%	58%
B6 1727 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 18:45	MCO 21:42	50%	26%	2.6%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON