Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:34 pm at Oakland); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3149 at 20:50, 39%.

Nonstops today


WN 3149 Southwest	OAK 20:50	ABQ 00:10	39%	7%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 17:37 → LAS 19:14WN 2274	2h 31m Las Vegas	LAS 21:45 → ABQ 00:20 +1WN 2177	5h 43m	100%	62%
Southwest Details →	OAK 18:10 → LAS 19:45WN 4693	2h 04m Las Vegas	LAS 21:49 → ABQ 00:25 +1WN 4528	5h 15m	93%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 19:45 → LAX 21:10WN 2396	50m Los Angeles	LAX 22:00 → ABQ 00:55 +1WN 1916	4h 10m	46%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON